Forecasting and predictive analytics

Anticipating future risk is a key task across supply chain management, investment management and corporate security. Our forecasting and predictive datasets deliver robust probabilistic outlooks for a critical mix of issues such as political stability, corruption, interstate tensions, financial openness, environmental regulations, and social risks.

Clients leverage our predictive capabilities to:

• Assess the risk posed to their investments by geopolitical tensions and ESG factors

• Understand the likelihood of a deterioration in the risk environment

• Improve auditing regimes based on machine learning models that forecast the risk of audit failure for tier 1 suppliers

We use qualitative and quantitative methods to produce forecasting datasets. Our projections data translate expert analyst judgements into probabilistic forecasts for a mix of our existing risk indices, including corruption, government stability, civil unrest, forced labour and environmental risks. Our predictive indices use regression models to provide probabilistic forecasts of, for example, the risk of state instability or interstate tensions. Meanwhile, our data scientists work directly with many of our clients to build predictive models tailored to their challenges based on their own and other data sources.