Climate Scenarios

What are climate scenarios and which ones do we use?

Our Climate Scenarios data encompasses 16 physical climate risks across seven time periods and three emissions pathways.

Climate scenarios breakdown graphic

Each index is constructed from climate metrics derived from ensembles of the latest generation of climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Between five and 20 models are used per index, selected based on each model’s strengths and suitability for modelling the specific hazard.

A climate scenario is a projection of how the climate might behave based on different levels of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in the future. When it comes to those produced by the IPCC, the gold standard for physical climate change risks, each scenario is made up of a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) which reflects the level of emissions, and a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) which describes different socioeconomic and development narratives.

Our physical climate risk indices cover: