Coronavirus updates

Beyond the curve: tracking the health of global business

The COVID-19 pandemic is a rare, extreme event. Though a global pandemic has been widely anticipated, now one has emerged it will have radical implications for populations, business and markets for years to come. The consequences are proving to be all the greater because “the world is not prepared” for a global public health crisis of this magnitude.

Here we bring together new and original business insights from our international teams of expert regional and thematic analysts. We’ll go beyond the curve to track and analyse the coronavirus pandemic’s trajectory, with our specialists dissecting the ramifications for companies and investors exposed to affected countries, industries and commodities.

Coronavirus Case Trajectories & Country Response Capacity

Updated daily, the interactive chart below shows evolving country-level case trends and the proportion of reported deaths relative to reported cases since late-January in all countries affected by COVID-19.

However, case identification varies widely between countries due to under-reporting, shortfalls in testing capacity or selective testing policies. Evidence is also emerging that deaths in key hotspots have been radically under-reported. Aware of these caveats, we present this data as an approximate guide to country-level trends, particularly the rate of growth in cases.


We also use our own data* to bring focus on the baseline political and institutional context for the non-pharmaceutical interventions being implemented – countries’ overall pandemic response capacity and (in the pop-ups) their unique combination of strengths and weaknesses: connectivity, healthcare resourcing, government effectiveness, political freedom, and the multiple factors affecting how likely communities are to consent to restrictions.

*While our approach may change as the situation evolves, we’re currently penalising politically freer countries: among developed democracies, only those with recent SARS experience have imposed emergency measures early enough to avoid major public health crises. Our approach is experimental at this stage due to robust, comparable, dynamic country data on COVID-19 response measures only beginning to be collated. As these develop, we’ll consider how best to factor them in.

Further regional & thematic insight below
    • Episode 11: Energy supply chain in the post-COVID-19 world: Diversification, ownership and low-carbon

      Thursday 29th October 2020 -- 08:00 BST

      Global Energy Supply chain Disruption
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    • Episode 10: Which G20 members face the toughest post-pandemic recoveries?

      Wednesday 2nd September 2020 -- 15:00 BST

      Global Recovery capacity G20
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    • Episode 9: COVID-19 pandemic will add fuel to fire of civil unrest

      Wednesday 24th June 2020 -- 08:00 BST

      Global Civil Unrest Economics
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    • Episode 8: How will the EU tackle the economic challenges ahead, and what are the ESG implications?

      Thursday 11th June 2020 -- 08:00 BST

      Europe ESG Economics
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    • Episode 7: COVID-19 unravels labour rights in Asia’s garment sector

      Thursday 28th May 2020 -- 08:00 BST

      Asia ESG Retail Labour rights
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    • Episode 6: Is the COVID-19 pandemic the last straw for large African economies?

      Thursday 14th May 2020 -- 08:00 BST

      Africa ESG
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    • Episode 5: How catastrophe models help us better understand the COVID-19 pandemic

      Thursday 7th May 2020 -- 15:00 BST

      Global Catastrophe Models
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    • Episode 4: Renewed civil unrest in Latin America - a question of when, not if

      Thursday 30th April 2020 -- 15:00 BST

      Latin America Economics Politics
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    • Episode 3: ESG implications of travel restrictions imposed in relation to COVID-19

      Thursday 23rd April 2020 -- 08:00 BST

      Global Supply Chain
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    • Episode 2: COVID-19 and the politics & economics of pandemic response

      Thursday 16th April 2020 -- 07:00 BST & 15:00 BST

      Global Political Risk Economics
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    • Episode 1: COVID-19 crisis and its impact on the global energy supply chain

      Thursday 9th April 2020 -- 07:00 BST & 15:00 BST

      Global Supply Chain Oil & Gas Mining
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  • Pandemic crisis deepens global divisions on climate action

    6th October 2020

    Global Climate change Energy transition Environmental risk
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  • India, South Africa, Brazil face bleakest road to economic recovery among G20

    20th August 2020

    Global G20 Civil Unrest Recovery capacity
    View Insight
  • Increased repression in Africa will dampen destabilising impact of pandemic

    3rd August 2020

    Africa Economics Political risk Civil unrest Macroeconomic
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  • Emerging markets face acute instability as pandemic fuels unrest

    16th July 2020

    Global Civil Unrest
    View Insight
  • Pandemic quickens diversification of supply chains beyond China

    2nd July 2020

    China Supply Chain
    View Insight
  • Rising food costs will fire up Africa’s civil unrest hotspots

    29th June 2020

    Africa Civil Unrest Food security
    View Insight
  • Latin America in line for huge surge in civil unrest

    22nd June 2020

    Latin America Civil Unrest
    View Insight
  • US named as ‘high risk’ country in new Civil Unrest Index - protests jump 186%

    5th June 2020

    USA Civil Unrest
    View Insight
  • Are Turkey, South Africa and India the next IMF bailout contenders?

    28th May 2020

    Global Economics
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  • South Asia at highest risk of civil unrest as food insecurity bites

    26th May 2020

    Asia Food security Civil unrest
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  • China’s COVID surveillance measures are here to stay

    20th May 2020

    China Human rights
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  • Food insecurity in Central America, Caribbean bigger threat than COVID-19

    29th April 2020

    Latin America Food security
    View Insight
  • Labour rights unravelling as Asia’s garment sector comes apart at the seams

    24th April 2020

    Asia Labour rights Consumer & Retail
    View Insight
  • SMART SAQs: Bridging the pandemic auditing gap

    22nd April 2020

    Global Supply chain Auditing
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  • Seven challenges COVID-19 raises for the climate agenda

    16th April 2020

    Global Climate Change
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  • Coronavirus: EU travel restrictions could trigger green innovation but will undermine ESG

    14th April 2020

    Europe Travel restrictions ESG Supply chain Forecast
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  • Coronavirus travel restrictions set to impact supply chains and operations throughout 2020

    10th April 2020

    Global Travel restrictions Forecast
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  • COVID-19: Outlook darkens for energy transition, but there is light for renewables

    7th April 2020

    Global Oil & Gas Renewables
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  • COVID-19: No breathing room for major economies

    1st April 2020

    Global Economics Sovereign Debt
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  • COVID-19 containment puts lid on LatAm regional unrest, but pressure already building

    31st March 2020

    Latin America Political Risk Civil Unrest Sovereign Debt
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  • COVID-19 pandemic is last straw for large African economies

    23rd March 2020

    Africa Economics Oil & Gas Sovereign Debt
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  • Multiple COVID-19 shocks mean no respite for oil and gas sector in near future

    20th March 2020

    Global Oil & Gas
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  • Turbulence in energy sectors as COVID-19 spreads globally amid oil price war

    11th March 2020

    Global Oil & Gas
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  • Resumption of business won’t ease coronavirus impact on global supply chains

    11th February 2020

    China Supply Chain
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