Anticipating future risk is key for companies across sectors, whether it involves operational security and resilience, supply chain management, or investment planning. Our forecast data sets provide probabilistic assessments for issues such as government stability, corruption, interstate tensions, financial openness, and civil unrest.
Clients leverage our predictive capabilities to:
Assess the risk posed by geopolitical tensions and ESG factors to their investments
Understand the likelihood of an increase in the risk environment
Improve auditing regimes based on machine learning models that forecast the risk of audit failure for tier 1 supliers
We apply both qualitative and quantitative methods to produce forecasting data sets. Our predictive indices use regression models to provide probabilistic forecasts of, for example, the risk of state instability or interstate tensions. Meanwhile, our index projections are based on analyst judgements and provide probabilistic forecasts of our existing indices, including corruption, government stability and civil unrest. New forecast analytics covering environmental and social risks are also in development, while our data scientists are working directly with clients to build predictive models based on their own data.