Disruption risk
Understanding risk exposure in a new market

The investment arm of a major extractives company was looking to set up a new office in a South East Asian capital and needed to know what long-term security risks they may face.

  • Challenge
    Our client needed a deep understanding of their exposure to developing terrorism, crime and political unrest risks in a concise and visual take-away.
  • Solution
    Blending proprietary data, mapping and qualitative assessment at the sub-district level, we analysed the terrorism, unrest and crime threats that could disrupt client activities, and assessed the conduct of local security forces. This fed into long-term scenario forecasts that identified ways in which the context on the ground could change.
  • Outcome
    The analysis was used to inform a board-level decision and has prompted follow-on work using scenario analysis to forecast the activities of specific terrorist groups in the region.