The investment arm of a major extractives company was looking to set up a new office in a South East Asian capital and needed to know what long-term security risks they may face.
Our client needed a deep understanding of their exposure to developing terrorism, crime and political unrest risks in a concise and visual take-away.
Blending proprietary data, mapping and qualitative assessment at the sub-district level, we analysed the terrorism, unrest and crime threats that could disrupt client activities, and assessed the conduct of local security forces. This fed into long-term scenario forecasts that identified ways in which the context on the ground could change.
The analysis was used to inform a board-level decision and has prompted follow-on work using scenario analysis to forecast the activities of specific terrorist groups in the region.