Country risk analysis

Analysis of grey swan events and their impact

We worked with a Western government to anticipate low-probability, high-impact events in markets across the world. Our quarterly scenarios helped the client identify and assess the multi-dimensional impacts of primary and sub-scenarios.

  • Challenge

    A government client wanted to test its own assumptions about Turkey, Thailand and other emerging markets, and requested scenarios on low-probability, high-impact events –which could positively or adversely impact its strategic interests.

  • Solution

    We developed an approach with the client intended to maximise the ‘value add’. This involved looking at the government’s strategic interests from a range of perspectives. The top scenarios were compiled by our country risk experts and then stress-tested by an in-house panel of political risk, environmental and human rights analysts. The likelihood and impact of each scenario was captured in an executive-level matrix.

  • Outcome

    Our client was able to test its own assumptions about political risk in these countries and develop an appreciation of the multi-dimensional impacts of different events on national interests. The scenarios have been used by our client to inform internal discussion on how to prepare for an unanticipated sequence of events with the potential to impact bilateral relations and regional stability.